Wednesday, 9 October 2019
7:30 AM — 6:00 PM
Registration
Location: Hotel Lobby
Sponsored by:
7:30 — 8:30 AM
Welcome Coffee & Tea
Location: España Ballroom Foyer
8:30 — 8:50 AM
Welcome Remarks
Location: España Ballroom I
Shane Akeroyd
President,
Asia Pacific and Global
Head of Account Management, IHS Markit
Turloch Mooney
Global Ports Editor,
Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit
Xu Songming
Deputy Secretary General, People's Government of Shenzhen Municipality
8:50 — 9:30 AM
Keynote Address
Location: España Ballroom I
Wang Haimin is Executive Vice President, China COSCO Shipping Corporation. Over a 20-year career in corporate management in the shipping industry, Wang has held numerous senior management positions within Cosco, and was also co-CEO and executive director of OOCL. In his keynote address for TPM Asia 2019, Wang will share his thoughts on the major trends in the global and regional container shipping sector from his perspective as a member of the senior leadership team of one of the world’s largest container shipping companies and China’s largest container ship operator. Among other things, he will share his thoughts and expectations for the major container trades; the challenge of industry decarbonization and the approaching deadline for IMO-imposed limits on sulfur emissions; carrier profitability, sector consolidation and capacity issues; expected structural and business changes in the container shipping industry over the coming years, and the effect of changes in the US-China trade relationship on the container shipping sector.
Speaker Introduction
Turloch Mooney
Global Ports Editor,
Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit
Keynote Speaker
Wang Haimin
Executive Vice President,
China COSCO Shipping Corporation
9:30 — 10:00 AM
The Global and Asia-Pacific Economic Outlook, 2019-2021
Location: España Ballroom I
Session Introduction
Jessica Qi
General Manager,
Customer Experience,
Dachan Bay Terminals
Speaker Introduction
Turloch Mooney
Global Ports Editor,
Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit
Featured Speaker
Yating Xu
Senior China Economist,
IHS Markit
The global economy was hit by good and bad news over the summer as several major economies cut interest rates and enacted fiscal stimulus while the US-China trade war intensified. IHS Markit projects 2.3 percent real GDP growth this calendar year and next for the US, reflecting in part the additional fiscal stimulus and upward revisions to employee compensation in recent quarters. The rising probability of a “no-deal” Brexit as well as prospects of snap elections in Italy and the UK have worsened the business environment for European businesses with GDP growth projected to slow to 1.0 percent and 1.4 percent in Europe and the UK in 2019. Anticipating that China would partially offset the adverse impact of new tariffs with additional policy stimulus, IHS Markit’s August forecast expects real GDP growth to be 5.8 percent in 2020 and 5.7 percent in 2021. The trade war is negatively impacting emerging markets, particularly in Asia, by disrupting supply chains, pushing down commodity prices and pummeling exports. This session will assess the global and Asia-Pacific macroeconomic outlook, including US and Eurozone growth prospects and the prospects for the Chinese economy over the medium term. The presentation also will provide an assessment of the US-China trade and technology wars and spillover effects to other Asian economies, as well as the growth opportunities and risk landscape in key emerging markets in South and Southeast Asia.
Sponsored by:
10:00 — 10:30 AM
Networking Coffee Break
Location: España Ballroom Foyer
10:30 — 11:30 AM
Container Shipping Outlook:
What New Trade Dynamics Mean on the Global Stage
Location: España Ballroom I
Session Introduction
William Pang
Chief Commercial Officer, HUTCHISON PORTS YANTIAN
Speaker Introduction
Greg Knowler
Senior Editor, Europe,
JOC, Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit
Panelist
Philip Damas
Director and Operational Head,
Drewry Supply Chain Advisors
Panelist
Parash Jain
Global Head of Shipping
and Ports Equity Research,
and the Head of
Transport Research,
HSBC
Panelist
Rahul Kapoor
Vice President and Head of Research and Analytics,
Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit
Panelist
Steve Saxon
Partner,
McKinsey & Co.
Profitability this year remains a moving target for container shipping lines, and unpredictable trade flows out of Asia and poor supply-demand fundamentals are clouding the container shipping outlook. Trade tensions on the trans-Pacific are changing demand patterns among US shippers, and BCOs are reporting tight space at loading ports in China and Vietnam. Carriers are responding by adjusting schedules and adding capacity to Southeast Asian strings as BCOs shift sourcing from China to avoid US tariffs. But the shipping lines in the summer also blanked seven sailings to the West Coast and two to the East Coast, preferring to cut capacity and add extra loaders if required. Compounding the demand uncertainty is the Jan. 1 implementation date of the IMO 2020 low-sulfur fuel regulation that will become compulsory when annual contracts still have four months to run. The headhaul trade from Asia to Europe is facing its own challenges, with poor supply-demand fundamentals leading to aggressive capacity management by carriers that blanked sailings totalling 150,000 TEU during July and August. Then there is intra-Asia, the world's largest container shipping trade and one of the most volatile. BIMCO reports weakness building in the trade this year and believes it's a signal of declining export orders, prompting the global shipping association to forecast slowing Asia-Europe demand in the coming months. That is certainly supported by data from Container Trades Statistics, which shows that Asia-Europe volume growth has been declining steadily since March. It's a complicated picture, but this high-profile panel of shipping experts will make sense of it all when it examines container shipping profitability, digs into capacity and demand on the major Asian trades, and analyzes the container shipping challenges ahead.
Sponsored by:
11:30 AM — 12:30 PM
View From the Top:
A Discussion With Industry Leaders
Location: España Ballroom I
Profitability this year remains a moving target for container shipping lines, and unpredictable trade flows out of Asia and poor supply-demand fundamentals are clouding the container shipping outlook. Trade tensions on the trans-Pacific are changing demand patterns among US shippers, and BCOs are reporting tight space at loading ports in China and Vietnam. Carriers are responding by adjusting schedules and adding capacity to Southeast Asian strings as BCOs shift sourcing from China to avoid US tariffs. But the shipping lines in the summer also blanked seven sailings to the West Coast and two to the East Coast, preferring to cut capacity and add extra loaders if required. Compounding the demand uncertainty is the Jan. 1 implementation date of the IMO 2020 low-sulfur fuel regulation that will become compulsory when annual contracts still have four months to run. The headhaul trade from Asia to Europe is facing its own challenges, with poor supply-demand fundamentals leading to aggressive capacity management by carriers that blanked sailings totalling 150,000 TEU during July and August. Then there is intra-Asia, the world's largest container shipping trade and one of the most volatile. BIMCO reports weakness building in the trade this year and believes it's a signal of declining export orders, prompting the global shipping association to forecast slowing Asia-Europe demand in the coming months. That is certainly supported by data from Container Trades Statistics, which shows that Asia-Europe volume growth has been declining steadily since March. It's a complicated picture, but this high-profile panel of shipping experts will make sense of it all when it examines container shipping profitability, digs into capacity and demand on the major Asian trades, and analyzes the container shipping challenges ahead.
Session Chair
Peter Tirschwell
Vice President,
Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit
Panelist
Silvia Ding
Senior Vice President and
Global Head of Ocean Product,
Maersk Line
Panelist
Peter J. Levesque
CEO,
Modern Terminals
Panelist
Willy Lin
Chairman,
Hong Kong Shippers’ Council and Hong Kong Productivity Council
Panelist
Deepak Saxena
Executive Director,
Global Ocean Head,
Kerry Logistics
12:30 — 1:30 PM
Networking Lunch
Location: España Ballroom II and Barcelona
Sponsored by:
1:30 — 2:30 PM
Changing US Trade Policy and the Impact on
Regional and Global Trade Patterns
Location: España Ballroom I
Session Chair
Turloch Mooney
Global Ports Editor,
Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit
Panelist
Wolfgang Lechmacher
Supply Chain
and Technology Strategist,
Former Head of Supply Chain
and Transport Industries,
World Economic Forum
Panelist
Nicholas Kwan
Research Director,
Hong Kong Trade
Development Council
Panelist
Alan Murphy
CEO and Founder,
Sea-Intelligence ApS
US President Donald Trump on Aug. 1 said the US would initiate 10 percent tariffs on a further US$300 million of Chinese imports from Sept. 1, effectively meaning all Chinese imports to the US would be subject to tariffs. A week later China allowed its currency to weaken to below seven yuan to the US dollar for the first time since 2008. The People's Bank of China said the move was a response to "unilateralism and trade protectionism measures” on the part of the US and the Trump administration formally branded China a currency manipulator. These moves, together with more hardline rhetoric coming from both sides, represent the kind of serious escalation in the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies that many international supply chain interests sorely hoped would never happen and sector observers such as IHS Markit are now predicting that a “comprehensive trade agreement is unlikely in the one-year outlook.” The existing tariffs already are having a serious and direct impact on trade volumes: Chinese exports to the US in the first half of 2019 fell by more than 8 percent to just less than US$200 billion, while imports plunged nearly 30 percent to about US$60 billion. Even if a deal is reached — and mechanisms are introduced to enforce terms to the satisfaction of both governments — the residual impact on trade flows and trade volumes could be a lasting one. This session will look at the objectives and agendas underpinning changing US trade policy and the impact of the trade war on volumes and patterns of trade. It will present scenarios for the short-, medium- and long-term development of the US-China trading relationship, including the likelihood of a deal, what such a deal might entail, and how it ultimately could affect patterns and volumes of regional and global trade.
2:30 — 3:30 PM
Sourcing Diversification and Production Fragmentation:
The Impact on Supply Chains and Container Shipping
Location: España Ballroom I
Session Introduction
Tony Zhao
DGM of Commercial Department, Shekou Container Terminals Ltd.
Session Chair
Greg Knowler
Senior Editor, Europe,
JOC, Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit
Panelist
Michael Crotty
Founder & President,
MKT & Associates, Ltd
Panelist
Ben Simpfendorfer
Founder and CEO,
Silk Road Associates
Panelist
Jane Singer
Managing Director,
Inside Fashion
The US-China trade war has ratcheted up the urgency of where to source at retail, consumer product, and other companies. It's not a new challenge: The history of low-cost manufacturing has been a history of Asian economic development. But in 2018, US tariffs imposed on Chinese-made products and Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on goods imported from the US accelerated what until now has been a slow but steady manufacturing shift out of China. In the first half of 2019, US imports from China declined 5 percent year over year, while in the same period US imports from Vietnam soared by 30.5 percent, according to data from PIERS, a JOC sister company within IHS Markit. US imports from Southeast Asia reached 1.6 million TEU in the January-June period, up almost 300,000 TEU, or 23.1 percent, over the first half of 2018. Other Southeast Asia nations have also experienced robust growth in the first half compared with the same period in 2018. US imports from Thailand rose 19.6 percent, Malaysia 22 percent, Indonesia 11.5 percent, and Cambodia 38.8 percent. Carriers have been adjusting their port calls to factor in this rising volume from Southeast Asia. Sea-Intelligence found that compared with the 2018 peak season, the 2019 peak season will see an increase from 14 to 18 weekly Southeast Asia-based trans-Pacific services. This session will examine the impact of shifting manufacturing on shipper sourcing strategies in Asia, what costs are being added to their supply chains and how to manage those costs, and whether container shipping is adapting to the shifting trade flows.
Sponsored by:
3:30 — 4:00 PM
Networking Coffee Break
Location: España Ballroom Foyer
Sponsored by:
4:00 — 4:30 PM
TPM Asia Accelerator:
The Greater Bay Area and its Relevance for
Manufacturing, Sourcing, Logistics, and Trade-Services
Location: España Ballroom I
Session Introduction
Jenny Deng
Key Account Manager,
Commercial Department,
Chiwan Container
Terminals Co Ltd.
Speaker Introduction
Turloch Mooney
Senior Editor,
Global Ports,
Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit
Featured Speaker
Ben Simpfendorfer
Founder and CEO,
Silk Road Associates
China’s ambitious plan to create stronger links between Hong Kong, Macau, and Zhuhai and eight other cities in the Pearl River Delta aims to create a world-class urban cluster to rival the San Francisco and Tokyo bay areas. Home to 68 million people, accounting for well more than a third of China’s exports, and with a GDP larger than that of South Korea, the Greater Bay Area is undeniably huge. But what’s the relevance for businesses? Transportation and trade infrastructure are a core part of the plan, with major projects such as the US$20 billion, 55-kilometer Macau-Zhuhai-Hong Kong bridge already complete and more than 300 new railway stations and high-speed rail lines under construction. The Qianhai Free Trade Zone and its preferential policies is set to be the area’s new central business district. Logistics- and trade-related services are set to be among the big winners of the plan’s policies, along with advanced manufacturing and digital and technology sectors. For Guangdong-based companies, the planned access to the financial and other services in Hong Kong means they can continue to develop at home and gain the financial muscle to expand overseas and buy world-class brands and technologies. In this highly anticipated presentation, Ben Simpfendorfer, founder and CEO of Hong Kong-based project advisory and consulting firm Silk Road Associates, will take a deep-dive into the Greater Bay Area by examining the infrastructure and policies to support companies and industries; outlining the opportunities; and advising companies how to position themselves to take advantage of them.
Sponsored by:
4:30 — 5:30 PM
Building a Future-Ready Culture in Your Logistics Organization
Location: España Ballroom I
Session Introduction
Jack Wang
Regional Director,
E2Open
Session Chair
Turloch Mooney
Senior Editor,
Global Ports,
Maritime & Trade,
IHS Markit
Panelist
Henrik Kofod-Hansen
CEO and Co-Founder, Novosensus
Panelist
Sanne Manders
Chief Operating Officer,
Flexport
Panelist
Jane Singer
Managing Director,
Inside Fashion
Would you recommend logistics as a career to your daughter or son? Unfortunately, the answer to this question for many people continues to be a negative one. As a career choice, logistics suffers from a poor image that suggests long hours, wafer-thin margins, transactional thinking, silo mentality, and lack of focus on innovation and entrepreneurialism. For some time, the industry has been hearing the warnings that without substantial change, it’s in danger of becoming irrelevant, outpaced and boring. A select few companies have heard these warnings and are launching innovative programs to improve, transform and future-proof their cultures. This session will look at the intentional steps industry leaders need to take to change mind-sets and behaviors in order to build future-ready cultures. It will examine how to make innovation and entrepreneurship an integral part of a new industry culture that turns employee experience into an asset for customer experience; develops leaders with future-ready facilitation capabilities; and attracts the right kind of talent and gives it the space it needs to build a bright future.
Sponsored by:
5:30 — 7:00 PM
Networking Reception
Location: The Galleon
Sponsored by:
STATEMENT OF JOC CONFERENCE EDITORIAL POLICY: All JOC conference programs are developed independently by the JOC editorial team based on input from a wide variety of industry experts and the editors' own industry knowledge, contacts and experience. The editorial team determines session topics and extends all speaker invitations based entirely on the goal of providing highly relevant content for conference attendees. Certain sponsors may give welcoming remarks or introduce certain sessions, but if a sponsor appears as a bona-fide speaker it will be because of an editorial invitation, not as a benefit of sponsorship. Sponsorship benefits do not include speaking on a program.